This stance comes amid growing uncertainties surrounding the rival Future Combat Air System (FCAS), a Franco-German-Spanish project plagued by industrial disputes and delays.
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The potential inclusion of Germany in GCAP highlights shifting dynamics in European defence aviation. Persistent tensions in FCAS, centred on workshare disagreements between Dassault Aviation and Airbus, have raised questions about its viability, prompting speculation that Berlin may seek alternatives to secure its next-generation fighter jet requirements. Italian Defence Minister Guido Crosetto recently noted that conditions are being established for new countries to join GCAP, explicitly mentioning Germany as a prospective partner alongside others like Australia. This openness aligns with GCAP’s equal partnership model, which has already fostered rapid progress, including the establishment of a joint venture headquarters in the UK and plans for a demonstrator flight by 2027. Incorporating Germany could enhance the programme’s industrial base, potentially accelerating development of the Tempest-derived aircraft and broadening its export potential.
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The reality that we can no longer rely on the US is the driver though. I think it’s best to have multiple supplier options now. Why go from being beholden to the Americans to being beholden to the French?
And I’m pretty sure Russia was not expecting NATO to suddenly have the capability replaced in Europe with the likes of SAAB
FCAS was explicitly intended to be a pan European development between 3 important states of the European Union.
Neither UK nor Japan are part of the EU, meaning Germany is making itself dependent from other economic parties. I don’t know how independent the GCAP development is from the US though.
Also Germany only would be more of a “privileged customer” in the case if GCAP than a cooperation partner like they would be with FCAS. FCAS was not planned as a project where someone is beholden to the French, but a real cooperation with the EU block. I still think this is by far the preferred option. But aircraft development is a very complex field and the industry is very specialized.
It is understandable from an economic perspective the players are acting protectionist. Shifting the responisibility from one company to the other has a direct impact to the economies of a country for many decades and is moreover connected to the set up and dismantling of whole industries, workplaces included.
But this is the risk states are willing to take within a EU, that is dysfunctional in many regards. There are many European projects in the past that have been very successful but others that failed hard. Military cooperation is a new task and we will see within the next 15 years how successful it will be.
The road to hell is paved with good intentions.