The FFC Chairman directly threatening them over speech is a clear violation that about any court would stand against. Yes, even this SCOTUS. They make surprising rulings all the time, though many of those are merely letting lower court rulings stand.

A court goes into a given case only interested in the facts about that particular case. In this one, they would be presented with the evidence that Kimmel was speaking against Trump, at worst. Couldn’t be more clear cut.